Data-driven analysis of growth factors in oyster mushroom cultivation: a case study from Indonesia’s market

Abstract

The oyster mushroom is one of the potential agricultural products that can be developed as an alternative to other agricultural products, to maintain Indonesia's economic condition. However, the production of oyster mushrooms remains low and falls short of the minimum amount of market demand. This study employs a machine learning (ML)–based approach to identify the key parameters influencing oyster mushroom production rates. Recursive feature elimination (RFE) was applied to reduce the initial 19 features to nine, enabling faster processing while maintaining high predictive accuracy. The results showed that agricultural features showed a high contribution rather than environmental, economic, and demographic features. Furthermore, these parameters were related to the train-test analysis to visualize the statistical analysis shown by the best method, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), with coefficient of determination (R2), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) values of 0.997575, 0.009841, and 0.085884, respectively. Related research relevant to the research findings was analyzed to validate that agricultural product features affect the decline of oyster mushroom production. Other supported research conducted by integrating real-time analysis and twin digital models, which can enhance substrate quality.