Improvement of transformer dissolved gas analysis interpretation using j48 decision tree model

Abstract

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) is widely accepted as an effective method to detect incipient faults within power transformers. Gases such as hydrogen, methane, acetylene, ethylene and ethane are normally utilized to identify the transformer fault conditions. Several techniques have been developed to interpret DGA results such as the key gas method, Doernenburg, Rogers, IEC ratio-based methods, Duval Triangles, and the latest Duval Pentagon methods. However, each of these approaches depends on the experts' shared knowledge and experience rather than quantitative scientific methods, therefore different diagnoses may be reported for the same oil sample. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposed the use of decision tree method to interpret the transformer health condition based on DGA results. The proposed decision tree model employed three main fault gases; methane, acetylene, ethylene as inputs, and classified the transformer into eight fault conditions. The J48 algorithm is used to train and developed the decision tree model. The performance of the proposed model is validated with the pre-known condition of transformers and compared with the Duval Triangle method. Results show that the proposed model delivers better precision and accuracy in predicting transformer fault conditions compared to DTM with 81% and 69% respectively.