Sectoral electricity micro-spatial load forecasting based on partitional clustering technique

Abstract

Load demand forecasting is crucial in energy supply planning due to economic progress and territorial expansion, where land utilization transforms dynamically. An accurate sectoral load prediction can preclude the loss of beneficial opportunities arising from excessive load demand or excessive investment at a low-growth juncture. However, the particular area in this sectoral approach is still relatively large, rendering it incapable of precisely projecting load at minor points (micro-spatial). This study has proposed a micro-spatial load prediction strategy that categorizes identified areas into smaller grids or districts. This procedure includes clustering similar sites together for improved accuracy. K-Means is one of the partitional clustering approaches, a clustering algorithm utilizing object-based centroid-based partitioning approaches. The algorithm determines a cluster's centroid or centre as the average point for the cluster. This technique is advantageous as it can process extensive data efficiently and is appropriate for circular data. This technique can divide the data into multiple partitions, ensuring that each object belongs to precisely one cluster. Subsequently, mathematical modelling is used to predict the load of each cluster, which can then be utilized to more accurately evaluate the positions and sizes of prospective substations, transmission, and distribution facilities.