Design of drought early warning system based on standardized precipitation index prediction using hybrid ARIMA-MLP in Banten province

Abstract

Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) is an effort to disseminate early warning information based on climate and hydrology aspects. The DEWS design uses ARIMA, MLP, and hybrid ARIMA-MLP models to predict drought based on SPI for 1, 3, and 6 months. Predictions were made using ERA5 monthly rainfall data from 1981-2022 corrected based on observation data on 9 grids of observation rain gauges in Banten Province. The design of the ARIMA model is determined by selecting the combination of p and q parameters with the lowest AIC value, while the MLP architecture is determined by referring to the study literature and by trial and error testing. ARIMA models and hybrid models are not able to follow actual data fluctuations and have high error values in both SPI1, SPI3, and SPI6, so they are not recommended in this study. The MLP model has the best prediction ability, namely in SPI6 prediction with NSE value reaching >0.5 and RMSE value.