Fuzzified input data tuning for agriculture commodities price prediction

Abstract

The quality of the input data will typically affect the prediction accuracy. Preprocessing of data is commonly referred to as input data tuning. Tuning the input data is critical for projecting commodity prices. Anomalies or outliers are unavoidable in historical price data. To increase prediction and forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to find and correct outliers before training the prediction model. To correct the anomaly and increase prediction accuracy, the Fuzzified Input Data Tuning and Prediction algorithm proposed in this study. The identified outliers are corrected using the relevant fuzzy set value in this method. With outlier corrected data, we used Long Short-Term Memory and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average to anticipate tomato prices in Karnataka state. The result of the proposed algorithm is compared with the Sliding Window anomalies correction model, and without disposing of the outliers. The suggested algorithm, with 37.89%, performed better than Sliding Window with 40.08% and 43.11% Mean Absolute Percentage Error, respectively, and without outlier correction. The sensitivity analysis shows that the performance of the model is unaffected by the forecasting horizon. Finally, comparitive analysis peformed with previous research work, and the proposed model performed better.