A portfolio optimization model for return trend rate and risk trend rate based on machine learning

Abstract

This paper presents a machine learning-based portfolio optimization model alongside a trading strategy algorithm. There are two distinct steps to the approach. Firstly, the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model was used to predict the closing price of stocks in the following 4 days. The average rise and fall rate over these four days is then calculated as the stock's return trend rate, which can measure the direction and intensity of the stock's rise and fall. The same method is used to predict the average of the industry index's rise and fall rate over the next four days as the risk trend rate. In the second step, the improved mean–variance model (IMV) model is used to provide customers with the stock portfolio purchasing strategy based on the return trend rate and risk trend rate. The experimental results demonstrate that the approach has a certain application value and outperforms the traditional method in terms of annual returns and Sharpe ratio, using the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as study samples. The model shows approximately 1% improvement in prediction accuracy. The latest advancements in machine learning provide substantial prospects for tactics involving the purchase of portfolios.