Interpretable machine learning for academic risk analysis in university students

Abstract

Higher education institutions often grapple with issues related to academic risk among their students. These academic risks encompass low academic performance, study delays, and dropouts. One approach to address these challenges is to predict students’ academic performance as accurately as possible by leveraging advanced computational techniques and utilizing academic and non-academic student data. This research aims to develop a model that accurately identifies students with high potential for academic risk while explaining the contributing factors to this phenomenon in the Faculty of Vocational Studies, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS). The prediction model is constructed using the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) method and is subsequently interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) value. Additionally, an oversampling method, based on synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), is implemented to address imbalances in the dataset. The proposed approach achieves 96% and 97% accuracy and specificity rates, respectively. Analysis based on SHAP values reveals that extracurricular activities, choice of major, smoking habit, gender, and friendship circle are among the top five factors impacting students’ academic risk.