Web-based geothermal drilling stuck pipe prediction using decision tree algorithm

Abstract

In geothermal drilling operations, data from rig-mounted sensors play a crucial role in maintaining operational efficiency and preventing drilling failures. However, sensor uncertainties and complex subsurface conditions can lead to stuck pipe incidents, causing significant non-productive time and financial losses. This study proposes web-based drilling monitoring system integrated with machine learning (ML) to predict stuck pipe occurrences in geothermal drilling. Several ML algorithms—decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), naïve Bayes (NB), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and support vector machine (SVM)—were evaluated using geothermal drilling data from an Indonesian geothermal project conducted in 2023. To address class imbalance, the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was applied to the training dataset. Feature selection was performed using the correlation coefficient method, and predictions were generated using a 5 minute sliding window. Among the evaluated models, the DT consistently demonstrated superior performance across multiple prediction horizons (PH), achieving an accuracy of 97.4%, precision of 98.6%, recall of 72.9%, and a ROC-AUC of 0.729 using the top five selected features. The trained model was integrated into web-based monitoring platform that provides visualization and predictive alerts. This system enables early detection and better decision-making, helping improve drilling efficiency, reduce stuck pipe risks, and enhance operational safety.